Ensemble-based Pre-genesis Watches and Warnings for Atlantic and North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

PI:  Dr. Russell Elsberry                                               

Funding: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Project Description: The objective of this study funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is to provide guidance products for the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) production of pre-genesis watches and warnings of Atlantic and eastern North Pacific, Central North Pacific, and western North Pacific, respectively. These guidance products will be based on the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts and will provide the genesis time and location along the Weighted-Mean Vector Motion (WMVM) ensemble storm tracks, and also the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) or corresponding Pacific (WAIP) intensity and intensity spread forecasts to seven days.  Therefore, this JHT proposal is directly responsive to program priority JHT-4: Guidance for tropical cyclone genesis including techniques to support pre-genesis disturbance track, intensity, and wind speed probability forecasts.

For questions, please contact Dr. Elsberry at relsberr@uccs.edu